Wizards would be wise to remember the 2012 Blazers
The Portland Trailblazers knew their window had come by the 2012 NBA trade deadline. They were still 20–23 the day before the deadline but had lost back-to-back games that they averaged just 77 points in and lost both decisively.
Portland acted quickly on March 15 (The deadline was pushed back that season due to the lockout) to tear down the roster.
Marcus Camby was shipped to Houston for Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet and a second-round pick.
Gerald Wallace was sent to New Jersey in exchange for Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams, and a first-round pick.
Chris Johnson and Greg Oden were also waived that day.
Head coach Nate McMillan was relieved of his duties and the team finished 8–15 under interim head coach Kaleb Canales.
These moves were startling because the Blazers weren’t totally out of the playoff picture and there were still 23 games left in the season. Yet, Portland realized that their roster’s upside was limited even if they managed to capture a playoff spot.
That June, the Blazers connected on both picks. The first rounder became Damian Lillard and the second-round pick became Will Barton. Despite being a productive player, Barton would be shipped to Denver three years later with Victor Claver, Thomas Robinson and a 2016 first-round pick (Malik Beasley) for Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee.
If any team is in need of a similar revelation with their roster, it’s the Washington Wizards. At 22–31, Washington sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Excuse me, tied for 10th with the powerhouse Orlando Magic.
Sure, the Wizards are just three games out of the eighth and final playoff spot but what’s the advantage?
Unfortunately, Washington has won too many games to truly tank. Atlanta closing that four-game edge in the standings to drop the Wizards to the fifth-worst record would be helpful but that seems unlikely to happen.
With the news breaking Tuesday that John Wall will be out another 12 months after sustaining a ruptured Achilles tendon after slipping in his home following an infection on the incision site from his season-ending heel surgery earlier this season.
Wall and his health issues are a big reason for the team’s lack of success. The point guard has now missed 91 of a possible 164 games over the last two seasons. In the four previous seasons, Wall had played in 96.3 percent of possible games after missing 46 games in his first three NBA seasons. It seems that the injury bug has sadly roared back again.
To make matters worse, Wall has a four-year, $170-million extension kicking in beginning next season. If the 12-month recovery timeline for him is accurate, Wall will miss about half of it.
It’s great for Wall because he will get his money no matter what. He’s guaranteed $141.6 million from the Wizards, bringing security to himself and future generations of his family.
For the team, they must realize that it isn’t going anywhere and need to get creative in retooling around Wall’s deal.
Even if the Wizards let Markieff Morris, Trevor Ariza, and their eight other expiring contracts leave in free agency, they still have $116 million on their roster for next season. If you think Dwight Howard is walking away from that $5 million player option, you’re crazy.
That kind of payroll doesn’t leave the Wizards with much flexibility. But instead of looking to move Wall, the team should look to move at least Ian Mahinmi and one of Bradley Beal or Otto Porter.
Moving on from Mahinmi is likely something the team has already tried to do. At age 32, Mahinmi is owed $15.4 million for the 2020 season. Would it make a difference for teams acquiring Mahinmi to know that he expires after one more season? It’s hard to say.
Porter and Beal are both 25 years old and would still be in their prime should the Wizards rebuild. Both players are set to make $27 million next season and come off the books after 2021.
With just two more seasons on their deal, keeping them wouldn’t be a terrible idea but they’re still going to win you games and they’re the team’s two most valuable assets. Trading them to ensure better draft position and accruing extra assets is a decent incentive to moving them now than let them play out their contracts.
Should the Wizards conduct an honest rebuild, they should ask both of these players if they are willing to play through a few rocky years as they enter their prime. If the answer is no, you have to move quickly in finding the right deals for them before they become public.
A deal to move Mahinmi and Beal and/or Porter would free up between $42-$70 million should they not take back any long term deals in return. That and giving up draft picks to move a contract like Mahinmi’s would defeat the purpose of the exercise. If teams start asking for a first-round pick, it would be best to say that you’ll just let him expire next season.
Realistically, trading just one of Beal and Porter in addition to Mahinmi would be ideal. As a rebuilding team, having $70-$80 million in cap space doesn’t do much for you. You’re not an attractive free agent destination yet and could lead to the temptation of signing players to contracts like, well, Mahinmi’s.
With $40 million in, you can still reach the salary floor and leave room to absorb larger short-term deals while picking up extra draft picks. And if Wall returns and finds a way to be effective, their timeline is further along than it looks today.
Whether it happens by Thursday’s deadline, draft night, or sometime this summer, the Wizards need to take an honest look with the direction of their franchise. The path to relevance may be closer than expected much like it was for the Blazers in 2012.
