Knicks chose the risk of trading Kristaps Porzingis over the risk of keeping him
The idea of a 7'3" big man with 3-point range is appealing in today’s NBA. A multi-faceted player of that size creates a conundrum for opposing coaches. This is what made Kristaps Porzingis so tantalizing for the Knicks in his first three seasons.
While this archetype is desirable, the actualization is difficult. Tall men like Porzingis, Yao Ming, and Manute Bol rarely have long careers.
Bol was 7'7" and missed only a reasonable amount of games in his first seven seasons but played just 89 games over his last three seasons. For his career, he played more than 20 minutes just twice.
While Shawn Bradley and Mark Eaton played nearly 900 games apiece, no player taller than 7'3" has played 1,000 NBA games.
And when injuries hit players of that size, they rarely stop.
That’s why this matters with Porzingis. Porzingis missed just 10 games his rookie year and 16 the next before tearing his ACL after 48 games in his third season. Porizingis may have age on his side but this is a concerning trend. If he makes it to 800 games, that would roughly amount to a 10-year career, but early injuries would make that a challenge.
With all of this being said, the Knicks salary dumping Porzingis before finding out if Porzingis could remain healthy or proving that they could win around him feels hasty.
The Knicks traded Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Courtney Lee to the Mavericks in exchange for Dennis Smith Jr., Wes Matthews, and DeAndre Jordan and two future first-round picks. The picks are believed to be an unprotected 2021 first rounder and top-10 protected in 2023.
This trade clears over $70 million for the team this summer, which isn’t the asset it’s often believed to be. The Knicks are reportedly set on signing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving this offseason with an ambition that rivals the summer of 2010.
While this does show some semblance of a plan, it’s risky because a lot can change over the next five months. Losing out on Durant, Irving or another combination of marquee free agents means that they prematurely jettisoned their best draft pick since Patrick Ewing for a glut of cap space.
Moving on from Porzingis in this manner also shows a change of course from the Knicks’ strategy the last couple of offseasons. Aside from the Joakim Noah contract, the team has avoided long-term, lucrative deals for veterans in the name of rebuilding. It appeared that they were taking the path of patience and now they’ve heightened expectations for this summer.
If they succeed, then this gamble may turn out to be worth it. If it doesn’t, they need to hope that those draft picks become something. Yet, if the Porzingis addition pans out for Dallas and proves he can stay healthy, Dallas could be a playoff team by 2021. By 2023, they could be even better.
The Mavericks’ decision to include their 2019 first-round pick in last June’s Luka Doncic-Trae Young swap turned out to be a good decision. Yet, it arguably would have become the best pick for the Knicks. Now, New York has to hope that they just turn out if they don’t land one of their free agent targets.
Seeing this as an immediate step forward for the Knicks is difficult. Maybe Smith Jr. turns the corner sharing a backcourt with Frank Ntilikina and Emmanuel Muddiay. Maybe the Knicks can gather additional assets for Jordan and Matthews.
If Smith Jr. and Ntilikina and Kevin Knox, having their own pick and two future firsts could actually position the Knicks well for the future without factoring in the cap space or aggressively adding two max contracts.
It seems that the Knicks decided that with the risk that comes with Porzingis long term and him entering restricted free agency that it would be better to pursue proven commodities. Yet, the Knicks will have to prove that this time that approach will turn out better than it has over the last 20 seasons.
Mark Cuban has liked Porzingis since the draft but the Mavs will now begin their campaign to retain him. Porzingis has said that he prefers to take the qualifying offer this summer and enter free agency in 2020 unrestricted. Giving up two first-round picks for Porzingis and losing him would be hard to stomach because they won’t have their pick this summer.
Hardaway Jr. and Lee are fine players but they weren’t the centerpieces of this deal. The Mavs need to keep Porzingis and keep him healthy.
Only time will tell whose strategy pays off.
